Anticipated coffee price decrease: Significant price drops expected for the widely consumed beverage soon
In the world of coffee, recent trends have been shaped by a combination of weather conditions in key producers like Brazil and global demand. As we move towards the latter half of 2025, the picture is becoming clearer, offering insights into the dynamics that have driven prices and projections for the future.
Arabica coffee futures approached around $3.80 per pound in early 2025, reflecting concerns over tight supplies and adverse weather conditions, particularly in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions. These prices represented a significant increase from earlier periods in 2024 and 2023. On the other hand, robusta prices have shown a decline in recent weeks due to expectations of a larger crop with good quality, especially from Brazil’s Espírito Santo state.
Early 2025 saw below-average rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-producing areas, especially for Arabica, raising concerns about the crop's maturation and quality. However, more recent reports indicate some relief from dryness concerns, which has slightly softened Arabica prices. Robusta, on the other hand, has benefited from robust yields and good weather conditions.
Coffee prices experienced sharp rises up to early 2025, with Arabica reaching record highs around $9.05/kg and Robusta around $5.81/kg in February 2025. Since then, prices have started to stabilize and decline somewhat, particularly robusta, as the new crops begin to arrive in the market. Export data shows a year-on-year rise of over 5% for Arabica and 11% for Robusta, indicating growing supplies and potentially easing pressure on prices.
Expert Kirill Seleznev, a stock market authority, predicts that the price of arabica coffee could fall below $6,000 per tonne. He also anticipates that the price drops for coffee could be between 10-20% by the end of the year. Seleznev attributes the downward trigger for the price of the commodity to news from Brazilian producers about a more favorable harvest situation this year.
The overall outlook suggests a balancing of supply and demand pressures as new harvests come to market, helping to stabilize coffee prices after recent volatility. As we navigate through the rest of 2025, the coffee industry will continue to monitor weather conditions, production levels, and demand patterns to forecast future price trends.
References: [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/commodities/coffee-prices-dip-on-better-weather-outlook-brazil-2025-04-13/ [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/commodities/robusta-coffee-futures-slip-on-expectations-larger-crop-2025-05-05/ [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-01/coffee-prices-climb-to-record-highs-on-supply-concerns [4] https://www.reuters.com/business/commodities/coffee-prices-fall-on-improving-weather-outlook-brazil-2025-05-06/ [5] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-01/coffee-exports-rise-on-growing-supplies-amid-declining-prices
In light of the anticipated larger crop with good quality, expectations for food-and-drink expenses, specifically coffee, could potentially decrease towards the latter half of 2025. On the contrary, the finance sector might experience a fluctuation as expert Kirill Seleznev predicts a possible 10-20% price drop for Arabica coffee by the end of the year, impacting the business of coffee producers and traders.
