US Steel Tariffs Set to Crush German Exports by Over a Third
Anticipated Decline in German Steel Exports Resulting from U.S. Tariffs
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Experts are bracing for a colossal decline in German steel exports to the US following the implementation of US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. According to an analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), as reported by Spiegel, German steel exports to the United States could plummet by roughly 35% in the next twelve months[1].
President Trump escalated the import duties to a staggering 50% last week, up from the initial 25%. The IfW forecasts that with the heightened tariffs, German steel exports would nosedive by around 20%[1]. If the tariffs had remained at 25%, the institute predicted a maximum reduction of merely 2.7%[1]. Indeed, negotiations are underway between the EU and the US to alleviate these burdensome tariffs, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) has also scheduled bilateral talks on trade issues.
As negotiations continue, it's become apparent that the steel industry in Germany is on the brink of a substantial setback. Industry sources, such as the European Steel Association (EUROFER), suggest that EU steel exports to the US have already dropped by 1 million tonnes[5]. With the new 50% tariff on the horizon, the bloc could stand to lose an additional 1 million tonnes—potentially up to 2 million tonnes[5]. As Germany is the EU's leading steel producer, it bears the brunt of this decline. Overall, it seems the steel industry in Germany faces a rough road ahead as such steep tariffs take hold[3].
Sources:
- ntv.de
- AFP
- ESI Metals
- Bloomberg
- EUROFER
The escalated US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are predicted to significantly impact Germany's steel industry, with exports potentially dropping by up to 35% in the next year, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. With the steel industry standing to lose 1-2 million tonnes of exports to the US and Germany being the EU's leading steel producer, employment and financial implications for the industry and community are pending.
