Competitor Emerges for Rocket Lab, Equipped with Fresh Launch Vehicle
On November 5th, 2024, Rocket Lab (RKLB -1.99%) blasted off its 12th rocket of the year, using an Electron launch vehicle to hurdle a covert payload for a confidential client into orbit for a commercial endeavor. This accomplishment set a new record for launch frequency for the New Zealand-based rocket manufacturer, with 12 launches in less than 10 months, surpassing the previous record of 10 launches within a year in 2023. With over two months left in the year, Rocket Lab has a prime opportunity to up its launch rate even further.
However, a formidable new competitor has emerged on the scene. This rival boasts a rocket larger than Rocket Lab's Electron, and is currently developing a second and third rocket that will exceed the capabilities of Rocket Lab's forthcoming Neutron rocket.
This new challenger goes by the name of Firefly Aerospace.
Firefly's Flight History
Firefly has launched a total of five different rockets since September 2021, although not all of these launches have been successful. Firefly's website offers a list of "past missions," but it is not always clear which of these missions achieved their objectives, and which did not. Despite the mixed track record, however, Firefly has managed to secure a significant number of customers and contracts for future launches.
Last month, I had the opportunity to discuss Firefly's launch manifest and future plans with the company's new CEO, Jason Kim. In addition to the upcoming Elytra launch later this year, which I have previously written about, Kim revealed that Firefly has signed contracts with defense giant Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.51%) to carry out 25 missions, as well as 23 launches for rival defense company L3Harris (LHX -0.76%).
Firefly has also announced plans to launch three missions between 2025 and 2027 for space company True Anomaly, using Firefly Alpha rockets to put its customer's "autonomous orbital vehicles" (i.e., space tugs) into orbit.
Bigger and Better Rockets
Firefly's current Alpha-class rocket has a one-ton payload capacity to low Earth orbit, which is three times the capability of Rocket Lab's Electron. However, Rocket Lab has a new rocket in development called Neutron, which will be able to carry 13 tons into orbit and be reusable.
Designed to compete with larger rockets such as SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Arianespace's Ariane 6, Neutron would naturally eclipse Firefly's Alpha-class rocket. In my conversation with Kim, I was eager to learn about Firefly's plans to develop larger rockets, and he did not disappoint.
Over the years, Firefly has discussed various ideas for building bigger rockets than Alpha. For example, in the 2021 book When the Heavens Went on Sale, space journalist Ashlee Vance described a "Beta" rocket that Firefly had originally planned to succeed Alpha. More recently, Firefly's former CEO, Bill Weber, had discussed a project to help Northrop Grumman build an "Antares 330" medium launch vehicle, as well as to develop a medium launch vehicle of Firefly's own (known as the "Medium Launch Vehicle," or MLV).
According to Kim, all of these projects are still in the works, although they have been reshuffled slightly.
The Antares 330, a rocket featuring a Firefly first stage with a Northrop second stage, is expected to launch for the first time in mid-2026. Soon after, Firefly will unveil its own homegrown medium launch vehicle, which will have a payload capacity of about 16 tons to low Earth orbit - greater than Neutron but less than Falcon 9 or Ariane 6. Both launch vehicles are expected to be in operation concurrently, but Kim anticipates Northrop will eventually transition to using Firefly's own MLV for launches.
Meanwhile, Firefly's Alpha-class rocket will continue serving the smaller payload market.
Beyond Rockets
Firefly has several other space projects in the works, which are proceeding as planned. Of particular note, Firefly aims to launch its Blue Ghost-1 (BG1) spacecraft later this year, and to land it on the moon in early 2025. A year later, the company has a contract to send another Blue Ghost spacecraft (known as BG2) to the moon, this time with a larger payload and a more powerful "Elytra Dark" space tug, which will earn Firefly a larger paycheck.
NASA has agreed to pay $93 million for the BG1 mission, but BG2 will cost it $112 million.
When it comes to Elytra, I must say that we've already covered quite a bit of ground in our previous discussions, and I've written extensively about its three variants of progressively increasing size - Dawn, Dusk, and Dark. However, in my conversation with Kim, he shed some additional light on the topic by referring to these spacecraft as "multi-mission orbital vehicles" rather than "space tugs," a term that carries some significance. Boasting substantial power and fuel reserves that grant these vehicles high Delta-V (basically, speed and maneuverability in space), Elytra will be capable of performing a wide range of missions beyond simply tugging satellites around.
Kim outlined an instance where an Elytra outfitted with a communication relay for the Space Force's Proliferated Warfare Space Architecture project could execute fresh tasks under the Space Force's associated Hybrid Acquisition for Proliferated LEO program. Initially operating as part of a constellation of communication satellites, it also has the capability to maneuver if needed (for instance, if another satellite malfunctions, an Elytra comsat could replace it in orbit, thereby restoring network functionality).
Is Firefly the Future Rocket Lab?
In essence, Firefly offers the following: a rocket launcher featuring rockets of comparable size to Rocket Lab's, both in use and under development. Additionally, Firefly manufactures spaceships, creating multi-mission orbital vehicles akin to Rocket Lab's Photon spacecraft. Lastly, Firefly serves as a lunar contractor, aiming to touch down on the moon, a feat yet to be achieved by Rocket Lab itself.
Could Firefly potentially emerge as an investment-worthy space stock, much like Rocket Lab and disappointingly, like SpaceX, fails to become? The answer might be yes. All that's required now is an Initial Public Offering (IPO) to confirm this.
Firefly Aerospace is actively seeking to expand its offerings in the finance sector, as it aims to raise funds through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). With its successful launches and significant contracts with companies like Lockheed Martin and L3Harris, Firefly has demonstrated its ability to generate revenue through investing in its rocket development and launch capabilities. Firefly's Alpha-class rocket, which has a payload capacity three times larger than Rocket Lab's Electron, and its upcoming medium launch vehicle, with a capacity exceeding both Neutron and Falcon 9, position the company as a strong contender in the competitive space launch industry.
