Currency depreciation: The dollar dropped by 4 tenge
In the financial landscape of Kazakhstan, the tenge exchange rate has been a topic of interest recently. Here's a breakdown of the current situation and forecasts, as well as the stance of the National Bank and government officials.
On August 5, the average weighted dollar rate on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange stood at 537.53 tenge. This rate, however, has seen some fluctuations in the past few weeks. For instance, on July 30, the dollar rate in exchange offices exceeded 550 tenge.
The Prime Minister of Kazakhstan, Olzhas Bektenov, has stated that the tenge rate is formed exclusively on market principles. This sentiment was echoed by the deputy chairperson of the National Bank, Alia Moldabeкова, who explained the current situation without specifying any prerequisites for a sharp weakening of the tenge rate.
Despite the recent pressures, the market shows signs of stabilization near 540 KZT due to active measures by the National Bank and government interventions. According to analysts, the current forecast for the US dollar exchange rate against the Kazakhstani tenge in August 2025, following interventions by the National Bank of Kazakhstan, is expected to fluctuate approximately between 530 and 550 KZT per dollar, with an average trend around 540–544 KZT.
Key contextual factors shaping this forecast include strong domestic demand for foreign currency, reduced exports, stabilizing oil prices, and the expectation of gradual rollback of the dollar's recent high rates.
In Astana, the current average purchase rate for dollars is 534.72 tenge, while the selling rate is 541.54 tenge. In Almaty's exchange offices, the current average purchase rate is 537.43 tenge, and the selling rate is 539.64 tenge.
It's worth noting that the National Bank started conducting currency interventions on an unspecified date, and on August 1, the National Bank sent 125.6 million dollars to "save the tenge". However, no new intervention from the National Bank has been announced in the current situation, and no new currency interventions have been reported since August 1.
For more detailed insights, we recommend reading "Dollar at 543: What's Happening with Tenge, Experts Explain". This article delves deeper into the factors influencing the tenge exchange rate and provides expert opinions on the situation.
In conclusion, while intervention by the National Bank is expected to temper large fluctuations, the dollar is likely to remain in the 530–550 KZT range through August 2025, with some potential for minor rollback from recent highs but continued market sensitivity to economic fundamentals and external risks.
The current average weighted dollar rate on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange is at 537.53 tenge, and recent fluctuations show the rate exceeded 550 tenge in some exchange offices.
The Prime Minister and the deputy chairperson of the National Bank have both emphasized the formation of the tenge rate relies on market principles. However, the National Bank has conducted currency interventions, which have helped stabilize the market near 540 KZT due to active measures by the National Bank and government interventions.
