Decrease in Mortgage Loan Issuance Volumes nearly Double in Chelyabinsk Region
Mortgage Lending Volumes Plummet in Chelyabinsk Region
According to data recently released by the National Credit History Bureau (NCHB), the number of residential mortgages issued in the Chelyabinsk Region decreased by 46% in April 2025 when compared to the same period last year.
Across the nation, the issuance of new mortgages dropped by 42.7% to 65,200 contracts in April 2025, down from 113,800 contracts in the previous year. However, there was a 13.9% increase in the number of mortgages issued in April compared to the previous month.
The Chelyabinsk Region, a significant industrial and population center in the Ural Mountains, saw 1,720 residential mortgages issued in April 2025.
This national trend of decreasing mortgage lending follows a complex and somewhat restrained market environment. Two of Russia's largest banks, Sberbank and VTB, experienced a significant surge in mortgage loan defaults in early 2025, with troubled mortgages reaching 2.6% of Sberbank's portfolio.
Despite rising defaults, forecasts for 2025 suggest moderate mortgage growth nationwide at a range of 3%-6%. However, this growth may be tempered by elevated interest rates and subsidy cuts.
A central bank rate reduction from recent peaks is anticipated, with projections to reach 16% by the end of 2025 and further declines in 2026-2027. This easing is expected to improve mortgage affordability and potentially support a modest market recovery starting in 2026.
Mortgage transaction volumes nationally demonstrated signs of stabilization or slight increases. For instance, April 2025 recorded 11.6 thousand mortgage loan agreements, a 9% increase year-over-year and 11% higher than the previous month.
In cities exhibiting housing shortages, such as economic and geographic neighbors of the Chelyabinsk Region (Yekaterinburg and Kazan), price growth of 3-5% is predicted despite an overall market stagnation or slight decline nationally. This suggests that the Chelyabinsk Region, given its attractive housing market and economic vitality, might experience slight increases in mortgage lending volumes.
However, the increase in loan defaults and credit risks reported nationally signifies that borrowers in the region, like those across Russia, could face challenges servicing their loans amid elevated interest rates and economic uncertainties.
In conclusion, the mortgage lending market in Russia in 2025 is characterized by cautious growth amid credit quality deterioration, with regional variations, such as the Chelyabinsk Region, potentially showing moderate volume increases but also facing risks tied to defaults.
[1] Wealth Russia[2] Bloomberg[3] Russia Beyond[4] CBR Russia[5] Rosreestr Russia
In the face of escalating mortgage loan defaults, forecasts for the personal-finance sector in 2025 predict moderate growth for the industry, such as banking-and-insurance. Despite a potential 3%-6% growth in nationwide mortgage lending, borrowers may face challenges servicing their loans due to elevated interest rates and economic uncertainties. On the regional level, the Chelyabinsk Region—with its attractive housing market and economic vitality—might experience slight increases in mortgage lending volumes.
