Drastically poor statistics for the North Baltic Waterway
The Downward Spiral of Kiel Canal's Traffic
Hear ye, hear ye! 'Tis a somber reality for the Kiel Canal this year, as the passage of ships fell below the 25,000 mark for the first time since the post-WWII era. The news comes from the good folks at Kieler Nachrichten, and it ain't a cheerful read for the canal's authority.
Why's that, you ask? Well, 2024 may go down in history as one of the worst annums for the waterway. Mind you, there's a glint of hope on the horizon. If, as planned, the canal's expansion is complete and the speed limit abolished, theallure for ship owners is set to be revived, says Jens-Broder Knudsen, chairman of the Initiative Kiel Canal.
The revelation of the annual balance for the Kiel Canal has been delayed this year. In past years, the figures were usually dished out in January or early February. But this year, it'll probably be unveiled by the end of February at the earliest.
Now, it's not just the canal authorities that feel the pinch. The shipbrokers Sartori & Berger and UCA United Canal Agency have noticed a significant downturn, with a possible 10% decrease in ship passages.
Reduced Speed Limits, Renewals and Rerouting
Even though the drops in traffic might make for glum times, there are silver linings. "If the expansion project and the lifting of the speed limit are completed as scheduled, we'd be more appealing to ship owners again," says Jens-Broder Knudsen.
Since July 1, 2023, all ships have had to trudge along at a mere 12 km/h instead of the usual 15 km/h, thanks to construction work to protect the canal's eroded banks. Fortunately, the repairs are moving along at a brisk pace.
However, another potential hurdle looms on the horizon. A lock chamber in Brunsbüttel may see a three-month closure from May, to replace railing for trolleys of a sliding gate. "Such interruptions don't make life easier, but the project's importance can't be underestimated," says Knudsen.
Ship owners are quick to adapt. "Then, the route around Skagen will be taken again," says Knudsen, who's also the managing director of Sartori & Berger.
A Decade-Long Decline in Ship Traffic
The declines in ship traffic through the Kiel Canal are not just a recent phenomena. For a dozen years, the numbers have been on the decline. In 2014, a whopping 32,600 ships graced the canal. "The size of the middle ship is gradually shrinking," explains Knudsen. Pilotage fees, calculated from this ship, are noticeably affected as a result.
"We're feeling the pinch. The first month of 2025 hasn't shown any signs of recovery yet," says David-Christopher Müller, second elder of the NOKII pilots' guild in Kiel. But there's a glimmer of hope. "If there's predictability in the canal's passage, it'll look a lot different. It seems that the unpredictability is one major reason voiced by ships for choosing alternative routes," says Müller.
Reliability is key when it comes to shippers choosing the Kiel Canal, according to Jan Klein of the shipbroker UCA United Canal Agency.
Stay tuned for the grand unveiling of all traffic data for the canal. Along with the number of ships, the quantities of goods transported and the sizes of ships are crucial parameters under the microscope. But from the looks of it, there might be substantial drops in these areas as well. The traffic statistics are still being crunched by the GDWS.
Source: Kieler Nachrichten, February 15, 2025 by Frank Behling
Enrichment Insights:- The decline in ship traffic through the Kiel Canal can be attributed to multiple factors, such as economic conditions, environmental regulations, infrastructure costs, geopolitical tensions, and changes in maritime law.- Precise reasons for the decline require in-depth analysis of historical data encompassing global trade patterns, regional trade balances, regulatory changes, geopolitical events, and maritime trade dynamics.- The Kiel Canal significance lies in its role as a vital waterway connecting the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, facilitating trade between Europe and other global markets.- The waterway's shrinking size of middle ships affects approximately 300 pilots, who base their fees on this factor.
- The Kiel Canal's industry and business sector may experience a revival once the scheduled expansion project is completed and the speed limit is lifted, according to Jens-Broder Knudsen.
- In the meantime, ship owners have resorted to rerouting their vessels around Skagen due to potential interruptions in public-transit, such as the planned three-month closure of a lock chamber in Brunsbüttel.
- Over the past decade, the Kiel Canal's traffic has seen a decline in both the number of ships and the quantities of goods transported, a trend that may continue and requires thorough analysis of historical data to understand its causes.
