Egg costs continue to drop, but for how long?
The ongoing avian flu outbreak in the United States has led to a significant increase in egg prices, as the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 strain has caused widespread culling of egg-laying hens.
Since early 2022, H5N1 outbreaks have devastated flocks of egg-laying hens, resulting in the culling of nearly 131 million commercial egg layers and an additional 7.2 million pullets (young hens meant to replace layers). This represents the largest bird flu epidemic in U.S. history, with continuous outbreaks across 50 states and the cumulative loss of millions of birds.
The culling has caused supply shortages. Although efforts are underway to control the outbreak and support producers, the reduced flock sizes mean fewer eggs are produced. For example, in 2025 alone, about 36.3 million birds in commercial table egg flocks have been depopulated, representing a decline of over 10% in the laying flock.
Consumer demand for eggs has remained steady despite higher prices, intensifying the supply-demand imbalance, which naturally drives prices higher.
In response to the crisis, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has announced plans to spend $1 billion to combat bird flu and bring down prices. Part of this investment goes toward providing relief to farmers affected by outbreaks, improving safety measures at egg-laying facilities, researching a vaccine, and cutting regulations. The USDA will also seek to roll back state rules that contribute to drastic price differences across the country.
To address the immediate supply shortage, the USDA also wants to temporarily increase imports and decrease exports to bolster the domestic supply of eggs. New tariffs enacted by the Trump administration could impact those imports, and negotiations with the affected countries are taking place.
In a move to support consumers, grocery stores have changed the way they price eggs due to tight supplies, keeping prices at levels that help them avoid empty shelves. However, egg prices have fallen 3.9% from July 2024 but are still 16.4% higher than a year ago. As of July 2025, the average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $3.60.
The Department of Justice has launched an investigation into large egg producers' pricing practices, and seven states and national retailers like Trader Joe's and Whole Foods have banned the production and sale of conventional eggs for animal welfare reasons.
Despite these efforts, the number of egg-laying hens has started to recover, but there's still a long way to go, and a resurgence of the virus is likely. In 2025, more than 31 million egg-laying hens have been affected by H5N1, with over 2.5 million pullets culled.
Avian flu remains a threat to the U.S. egg supply, and the situation is being closely monitored by the USDA and other agricultural organisations. Consumers are advised to stay informed about the latest developments and follow safe handling practices when purchasing and consuming eggs.
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