Farmers Resist Against Scheduled Opponents on the Following Day
In the world of agriculture, cotton prices continue to show signs of a bearish trend, with no clear breakout in sight as of mid-August 2025. This trend, which has been ongoing since 2022, is characterised by lower highs and lower lows, with prices hovering around 67 cents per pound, close to recent lows[1].
The USDA's July 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projects higher ending cotton inventories for 2025/2026, indicating that production is sufficient to meet demand at current prices, which is bearish for cotton prices[1][4]. The USDA forecast for US cotton production for 2025/26 was lowered due to decreased acreage and dryness boosting abandonment rates in some regions, but higher yields somewhat offset the drop[2][3]. Ending stocks are forecast to be around 3.6 million bales, down 1 million from previous estimates, leading to some tightening of the supply outlook, especially in the US[2][3].
Despite this modest tightening, the overall multi-year bearish trend remains intact as prices hover near the lower end of the trading range[1][2]. Domestic price indexes, such as the A Index and Chinese Cotton Index, have been stable to slightly eased recently, consistent with sideways to soft market movement[5]. The USDA projects upland cotton prices averaging about 62 cents per pound for the 2025/26 marketing year, a decrease from prior years, reflecting ample supplies[4].
As of October 25, cotton is trading at 65.08, up 12 points, and futures have gained 12 to 23 points so far on Friday[6]. However, without a major change in fundamentals like a sharp drop in global production or export barriers, cotton prices are unlikely to break significantly out of the bearish trend or consolidate range soon[1][2].
In the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see how the market responds to these trends. As always, careful analysis and strategic planning will be crucial for investors and traders in the cotton market.
[1] USDA (2025). Cotton: World Markets and Trade. [Online]. Available: www.fas.usda.gov/data/cotton-world-markets-and-trade [Accessed 2025-08-12]. [2] USDA (2025). Cotton: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. [Online]. Available: www.fas.usda.gov/data/cotton-world-agricultural-supply-and-demand-estimates [Accessed 2025-08-12]. [3] USDA (2025). USDA Lowers US Cotton Production Forecast for 2025/26. [Online]. Available: www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2025/07/26/usda-lowers-us-cotton-production-forecast-202526 [Accessed 2025-08-12]. [4] USDA (2025). USDA Projects Upland Cotton Prices to Average 62 Cents per Pound in 2025/26. [Online]. Available: www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2025/07/26/usda-projects-upland-cotton-prices-average-62-cents-pound-202526 [Accessed 2025-08-12]. [5] Cotton Outlook (2025). Cotton Market Update. [Online]. Available: www.cottonoutlook.com/market-update [Accessed 2025-08-12]. [6] Cotton Market News (2025). Cotton Prices Today. [Online]. Available: www.cottonmarketnews.com [Accessed 2025-10-25].
The USDA's financial projections suggest that upland cotton prices are expected to average around 62 cents per pound for the 2025/2026 marketing year, indicating a potential investment opportunity for those involved in the cotton market. However, the overall bearish trend in cotton prices remains intact, and a significant breakout may not occur without a major change in the market's fundamentals.
