Gas prices for Ai-95 fuel have reached an all-time high.
In recent months, both wholesale and retail gasoline prices in Russia have experienced a significant increase, driven by a combination of supply disruptions and government policies.
Wholesale gasoline prices hit record highs on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange, exceeding 77,000 rubles per ton (approximately $946.6/ton) in early August 2025. Retail prices, while rising more moderately, have shown a steady increase since the start of the year, with a 3.25% rise since January and a 0.2% increase in late June.
The surge in prices can be attributed to several key factors. Damages to oil refineries caused by Ukrainian drone strikes in early August reduced Russia’s processing capacity by about 40,000 tons of crude per day, tightening the supply. A government-imposed ban on gasoline exports from late July through August (potentially extended into September) aimed at stabilizing domestic supplies and preventing shortages. However, since exports are smaller than domestic consumption, this measure has had limited effect on the supply-demand balance and prices.
Low domestic gasoline stocks and peak seasonal demand during the summer further exacerbate the supply constraints.
Despite these challenges, oil companies are taking steps to stabilize the market. They are increasing gasoline production volumes and introducing reserve primary and secondary processing units to help offset the reduced capacity caused by the refinery damages.
The Ministry of Energy has also announced that automobile gasoline production volumes lost due to unplanned repair work will be compensated.
In terms of price levels, gasoline prices in St. Petersburg ranged around 61-62 rubles per liter by mid-2025. Retail gasoline prices decreased slightly from $0.79/liter in June to $0.76/liter in July 2025, yet remain elevated compared to historical averages. Forecasts suggest prices may stabilize near $0.77-0.83/liter through 2026-2027.
It's worth noting that while retail gasoline prices have risen by around 3.25% since early 2025, Russia’s annual inflation rate in mid-2025 hovers around or above 20%. This implies that gasoline price growth is noticeably lower than overall inflation, meaning gasoline costs are increasing but less rapidly than general consumer prices.
In summary, gasoline prices in Russia are increasing due to supply shocks and policy measures, but at a slower rate compared to Russia’s general inflation in 2025. The increase in gasoline prices at gas stations from the beginning of 2025 to August 4 was 4.9%. The increase in gasoline prices at the retail level has been outpacing inflation for the second week in a row since July 22. Due to the ban on gasoline exports, additional fuel volumes will be prioritized for exchange trading and wholesale "market" sales.
The surge in gasoline prices has implications not only for retail consumers but also for the wider industry. Companies in the finance sector may experience increased costs due to the higher prices, potentially affecting their profit margins. Concurrently, the escalating energy costs could impact businesses heavily reliant on affordable fuel, mainly within the transportation and manufacturing industries.
