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Germany's Defense Spending Hike Sparks French Concerns

France worries about growing German military might. The future of European defense hangs in the balance.

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Germany's Defense Spending Hike Sparks French Concerns

Germany's plans to significantly increase its defense spending have sparked concerns in France, with President Emmanuel Macron worried that this could blur his vision of a strategically autonomous European defense industry. The move, which comes as France struggles to meet its NATO commitments, has reignited an age-old French fear of growing German military might.

Mujtaba Rahman, head of Eurasia Group's Europe practice and a prominent analyst on European politics and economics, has highlighted the historical significance of this shift. He argues that the European defense industry stands at a crossroads, with a growing consensus that Europe must enhance its defensive capabilities independently of the US. However, Rahman notes that the path forward is fraught with political complexities, particularly due to strong national interests and a lack of European cohesion on security issues.

Germany, as the EU's largest economy and industrial hub, plays a central role in this process. Yet, Rahman sees Germany as hesitant in pushing for a common European defense policy and investing in its military capabilities. Despite Chancellor Friedrich Merz's talk of a European 'framework' for defense spending, Rahman believes Germany remains cautious and risk-averse, frustrating NATO and the US.

The sheer scale of Germany's planned spending, aiming to reach 3.5 percent of GDP by 2029, will make its defense industry a key player in European military innovation and procurement. This could potentially overshadow France's defense industry, which is struggling to meet its NATO commitments and cut its budget deficit. By 2029, Germany's defense budget is expected to reach €150 billion, compared to France's €80 billion at best.

The direction of Germany's military build-up will be crucial in determining whether it strengthens European strategic autonomy or favors US partnerships. While some French officials dismiss fears of Germany's growing military might, citing France's global military reach and nuclear deterrent, the concern remains that Germany's increased spending could shift the balance of power within Europe. The coming years will be pivotal in shaping the future of European defense and the role that Germany plays within it.

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