Global Oil Surge: Record Supplies and Delayed Peak Demand Predicted
Global oil supplies have surged, with increased exports from major producers like OPEC+, the US, and West Africa. This surge, coupled with a delay in peak oil demand, has led to a significant rise in oil at sea and a predicted record market surplus next year in the world market.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has pushed back BP's peak oil production forecast from 2025 to 2030, reflecting the current abundance in supply. This shift is supported by data from Kpler and OilX, which show a peak in oil at sea since mid-last year in the stock market today.
Driving this increase are several factors. Notably, the Middle East has seen a significant boost in crude oil exports. Additionally, a decrease in direct crude oil burning and planned maintenance of regional refining capacity have contributed to the surplus. In September alone, major producers like the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia upped their supplies by over 2 million barrels per day. Vortexa estimates that around 1.25 billion barrels of oil are currently at sea, the highest since April 2023 in the stock market.
The IEA predicts a record market surplus next year due to these increased supplies. While this abundance eases concerns about supply shortages, it also raises questions about how the market will absorb this excess oil in the stock market today. The delay in peak oil demand further complicates the outlook for global oil markets.
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