Grain Trade Commences on Tuesday with Initial Deficits
Wheat Futures Show Mixed Trends as Market Faces International Challenges
In the week ending July 24, 2025, U.S. wheat exports amounted to 288,793 MT, a decrease of 38.33% compared to the same week last year and less than half of the week prior. This decline was accompanied by a slight softening in prices across the three main U.S. futures markets: CBOT, KCBT, and MGEX.
CBOT Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures for September 2025 opened near $5.57 per bushel on July 3 and traded down to about $5.38¼ per bushel by July 28–29. This decline reflects bearish sentiment and selling momentum in the market. On July 30, CBOT SRW futures closed down 5 to 6 cents for the day, continuing some weakness.
KCBT Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat futures saw a slightly softer but mostly steady to modest decline. Prices were around $5.36 per bushel on July 3, and late July reports indicate a small decline and some down days with drops of 7 to 8 cents on July 30. However, those contracts held up better than CBOT SRW in intra-day trading on that date, even gaining 2 to 4 cents at some points.
MGEX Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat futures showed mixed but slightly firmer trends initially, with September contracts quoted at $6.47 per bushel on July 3. Later trading was more mixed with fractional changes, including small declines by the end of July.
Market fundamentals for the period included generally good U.S. crop conditions in some regions, but some weather challenges and international production concerns (notably from Russia and Ukraine) added complexity. The market experienced selling pressure driven by some easing of export concerns and mixed crop quality reports, contributing to the softening in prices.
As of July 31, 2025, the approximate prices for the near-contract futures are as follows:
| Market | Approx. Price on July 3, 2025 | Price Trend by July 29-30, 2025 | Notes | |-----------------|------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------------------------------| | CBOT SRW | ~$5.57/bu | Declined to ~$5.38¼/bu | Bearish sentiment, down 5-6¢ on July 30[1][2][4] | | KCBT HRW | ~$5.36/bu | Slight decline, down 7-8¢ on July 30, but intra-day gains seen[1][4] | | MGEX HRS | ~$6.47/bu | Mostly stable with minor declines late July[1][4] |
These prices cover the near-contract futures (typically September 2025) for the relevant markets and represent daily settlement or closing prices as available.
In the subsequent days, wheat bears remained in control, with losses across all three markets. For instance, on Tuesday, September 25, KCBT Wheat closed at $5.26, down 1/2 cent from the previous day, MGEX Wheat closed at $5.82 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents from the previous day, and Dec 25 KCBT Wheat closed at a lower price, $5.46 3/4, down 1 cent from the previous day.
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Despite the international challenges and production concerns, the finance sector closely monitored the fluctuations in wheat futures, particularly the decline in CBOT SRW wheat futures from $5.57 per bushel to around $5.38¼ per bushel by late July. Meanwhile, KCBT HRW and MGEX HRS wheat futures also demonstrated falls, with KCBT HRW dropping by as much as 8 cents, and MGEX HRS experiencing minimal declines.
