Granting Donbas to Putin provides Moscow significant influence over Kyiv's financial stability
The Donbas region in Eastern Ukraine, encompassing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, is at the heart of a complex conflict that intertwines territorial control with the struggle over valuable strategic natural resources. The region is rich in coal, shale gas, coal bed methane, lithium, and other critical minerals, making it a coveted prize for both Ukraine and Russia.
The transportation and energy sectors in Ukraine require a combined recovery investment of $146 billion, with the Donbas region accounting for a significant portion of these needs. The region is an industrial and economic hub for Ukraine, supplying over half of the country's hard coal reserves, essential for steelmaking, power, and metallurgy.
For Russia, controlling Donbas offers access to valuable raw materials indispensable for its industrial needs, as well as an economic and geopolitical foothold. The proximity to the Sea of Azov enhances the export capacity of these resources, providing Moscow with leverage to influence Ukraine’s economy and energy security.
The Donbas region is Ukraine's industrial heartland, with coal mining and steel production as the main drivers of economic growth. Beyond coal, the region is also rich in gypsum, chalk, marble, granite, sand, and clay. The Soledar salt mines, with an estimated 4.5 billion tons of rock salt, are the largest reserve in Europe.
The conflict over Donbas is far from a new development. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected proposals to concede land to Russian President Vladimir Putin, particularly the Donbas region, stating that Putin has repeatedly tried and failed to seize the entirety of the Donbas region for a period of 12 years.
Grace Mappes, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, noted that conceding the Donbas region would mean relinquishing Ukraine's "fortress belt," a fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014. Mappes added that Ukraine's substantial investment in reinforcing its fortress belt underscores its central role in the country's military resilience.
The conflict has taken a heavy toll on Ukraine's infrastructure. Housing accounts for the largest share of Ukraine's long-term reconstruction and recovery needs, with nearly $84 billion required. The United Nations, World Bank, European Commission, and Ukrainian government have jointly estimated that Kyiv faces $524 billion in post-war reconstruction over the next decade.
Putin's proposal to concede the Donbas region is seen as a ploy to avoid the years-long, bloody campaign that would be necessary to seize the fortress belt and the rest of Donetsk militarily, according to Mappes. The Artyomsol plant, Europe's largest salt producer, fell to Russian forces in 2022, adding another strategic asset to Moscow's control.
The ongoing conflict over the Donbas region underscores the importance of these strategic resources for both countries. The resources extracted and exported from the region are crucial for the economic stability and geopolitical power projection of both Ukraine and Russia. The battle for Donbas is, therefore, not just a territorial dispute but a struggle for the future of these strategic resources.
[1] Institute for the Study of War (2022). Donbas: The Strategic Resources at Stake. [Online]. Available: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/donbas-strategic-resources-stake
[2] European Union External Action (2022). Ukraine: Donbas and the conflict. [Online]. Available: https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/_jcr_content/par/feature_block_full_width/feature_block_content/feature_block_item_1/feature_block_item_1_content/text/text_content/text.html
[3] Council on Foreign Relations (2022). Ukraine's Donbas Region: What's at Stake. [Online]. Available: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ukraines-donbas-region-whats-stake
[4] The New York Times (2022). Ukraine's Donbas Region Is a Strategic Prize for Putin. [Online]. Available: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/world/europe/donbas-ukraine-russia.html
[5] The Guardian (2022). Ukraine's Donbas region: why Putin wants control of the coal and steel hub. [Online]. Available: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/01/ukraines-donbas-region-why-putin-wants-control-of-the-coal-and-steel-hub
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