Gulf States Institute President deliberates on Trump's journey across the Middle East
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HOST:
President Trump's recent jet-set adventure to the Gulf wasn't just about soaking up the sun! Fresh from the trip, he's vowing to bring more investments in weapons sales. Guess why? The timing couldn't be better, with Iran hinting it might revive a nuclear deal if the US lightens up on sanctions. Hear what Doug Silliman, the big cheese at the Arab Gulf States Institute, has to say about it. He's also ex-US ambassador to both Kuwait and Iraq.
So, Doug, Trump's back with deals. What really drove this trip, and did it pay off?
DOUG SILLIMAN: I reckon the main purpose of the trip was to prove to Americans that Trump Junior can deliver on the economic front - considering all the uncertainty caused by his trade policies, like tariffs, and stuff. Now, he tried to do this in the Gulf by scoring some big investment pledges from Gulf states for U.S. businesses.
As for the deals he got, there are plenty of MOUs, contracts, and agreements for advanced chips, Boeing aircraft, and even some defense packages. He was also keen on making sure Saudi Arabia, and the broader OPEC+ group, would keep oil production high enough to keep oil prices down and gas prices low for the little guy back home.
Trump wants to move U.S. relations with the Gulf away from the Carter doctrine of 45 years ago - which was all about oil for security. Instead, he's gunning for deep, long-term economic partnerships. Luckily, the Gulf states seem to dig this approach too.
MARTÍNEZ: So, this was just all about business, right?
SILLIMAN: It wasn't purely business, but the business angle was definitely the vibe. Both the Gulf states and Trump wanted to highlight the awesome economic potential of their collaboration. Beyond the business deals, I'm confident that bigger political issues were discussed - although Trump and co. don't fancy talking about those.
Take the idea of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel in exchange for an Israeli promise that would set a path for Palestinian statehood. That didn't happen. But trust me, from Trump's comments in Abu Dhabi, it's clear Gulf leaders certainly spoke up about their concerns regarding Israeli actions in Gaza and the state of Palestinians.
MARTÍNEZ: Er, yep.
SILLIMAN: It's also apparent that there was some talk about the US negotiations with Iran to get a new nuclear deal. All the countries in the Gulf, apart from one (Bahrain), have re-established diplomatic relations with Iran. They want peace in the region so they can concentrate on their own economic development and reforms.
MARTÍNEZ: Anything interesting about this visit that was different from the previous one? I mean, Trump went there in his first term too.
SILLIMAN: Nope, both the Gulf and Trump are more mature and sophisticated than eight years ago. Remember, the Gulf was still reeling from the Obama administration's signing of the Iran nuclear deal, which they received with minimal consultation. However, this time, the administration is consulting with the Gulf on Iran-related matters.
The Gulf is not as tense with Iran and their focus is now on regional stability and investments for their massive development projects. I think the Gulf states desperately want the U.S. and Iran to reach a deal that decreases tension in the region.
On Trump's side, he faces fewer domestic constraints this time, and the mix of business and diplomacy was more evident during the visit. Trump family businesses have been chatting about building a Trump Tower and a golf resort in Qatar. There's also the controversial issue of whether or not the president should accept a Qatari plane to serve as a new Air Force One.
MARTÍNEZ: Got 30 seconds left. If Trump actually reaches a deal with Iran, will other Gulf nations have a say in it?
SILLIMAN: If Trump strikes a deal with Iran, it'll largely be his deal. But he'll definitely keep the Gulf leaders in the loop to ensure they're comfortable with the result.
MARTÍNEZ: Thanks, Doug Silliman.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The original authoritative record of NPR's programming is the audio record.
- The Gulf states have expressed their desire for peace in the region, allowing them to focus on their own economic development and reforms. This could potentially influence policy-and-legislation and politics surrounding energy, particularly oil-and-gas, as they aim for decreased tension with Iran.
- Doug Silliman, former US ambassador to Kuwait and Iraq, suggests that Trump's recent trip to the Gulf was not only about business deals but also about policy-and-legislation discussions, including the US negotiations with Iran to get a new nuclear deal.
- The visit included talks about the US-Iran relationship, comprehensive economic partnerships between the US and the Gulf, and the ongoing situation in Gaza and Palestine, indicating the intertwining of general-news, finance, and politics in the discussions.
