Import Duties on EU Exports to US Rise by 30%, Affecting Economic Standing of Italy, Spain, Greece, and Ireland
In a concerning development, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 30% tariffs on European imports, including Italian goods, starting in August. This move could have significant repercussions for Italy, particularly for the regions of Tuscany, Lombardy, and Emilia-Romagna, and various high-value industries.
If the tariffs are indeed implemented, Italy could potentially lose up to €38 billion in exports to the U.S., out of current exports of €65 billion. Tuscany alone could face losses exceeding €1 billion, with Florence—the most affected province—potentially losing about €580 million in just one quarter.
The industries most affected in Tuscany include fashion, leather goods, jewelry, precision mechanics, and increasingly important food and wine sectors. These sectors currently benefit from strong trade links with the U.S. At the national level, over 6,000 Italian small and micro companies are directly exposed to these higher tariffs.
Key export sectors to the U.S. include beverages, automobiles, and other transport equipment, with Italy being the EU’s third-largest exporter to the U.S. A 30% tariff could severely impact the competitiveness of Italian exports in these core industries and major regions, potentially causing significant economic and social fallout.
Many Italian companies would find it 23% more expensive to sell in the U.S. compared to 2023, resulting in a loss of around €20 billion in total exports to the U.S. This figure does not account for potential further increases in tariffs, which could exacerbate the situation.
The depreciation of the dollar against the euro (-13% since the start of Trump's second term) has made European exports more expensive in the U.S. market. Additionally, the average tariffs on imports from around the world into the U.S. have risen from 2.3% to 8.8% since April.
Negotiations between the U.S. and EU are ongoing, with the EU considering its own tariffs. Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti stresses the importance of reaching a reasonable compromise on tariffs. Alessandro Fontana, director of Confindustria's Research Center, warns that the impact would be even greater if U.S. tariffs were to increase further.
Italy is currently one of the most affected EU countries, with average tariffs already at 8%. Over 6,000 businesses, with over 140,000 employees, are directly exposed to high potential risks due to U.S. tariffs. This "implicit tariff" has resulted in a cumulative loss of up to 21% for Italian exporters compared to the pre-Trump period.
The Italian trade surplus has increased significantly, reaching €55 billion in 2024, up from €34 billion. However, this growth may be short-lived if the proposed U.S. tariffs are implemented.
In summary, the proposed 30% U.S. tariff on imports from Italy could have a devastating impact on the country's exports, particularly in the regions of Tuscany, Lombardy, and Emilia-Romagna, and in industries such as fashion, leather, jewelry, precision mechanics, food, wine, beverages, and transport equipment. It is crucial for negotiations to result in a reasonable compromise to avoid these potential losses.
The international finance industry and various business sectors, particularly high-value industries such as fashion, leather goods, jewelry, precision mechanics, food, and wine in Tuscany, could be severely impacted if the proposed 30% U.S. tariffs on European imports are implemented, potentially facing losses exceeding €20 billion in total exports. The Italian economy minister emphasizes the necessity of reaching a reasonable compromise in ongoing negotiations with the U.S. to avoid these significant economic and social repercussions.
