"Investment woes persist in the political discourse"
In the global economic landscape, two powerhouses, the United States and China, are at the forefront of a contentious relationship that is widely perceived as the key catalyst for the current economic slowdown. This clash between these two dominant zones has led to a trade war, which is one of the main barriers in global trade.
The US, with a share of 24% of the global GDP, is currently embroiled in a discussion about a Trump impeachment inquiry that could potentially alter the President's future. However, an agreement between the US and China, while significant, is not enough to rescue the world from the economically squeezed situation. President Trump's approval rates have been on the rise, now standing at 43.5%, but his tough rhetoric is expected to continue, even with some sort of agreement with China.
Meanwhile, the European zone, excluding the United Kingdom, holds a 18% share of the global GDP. The American government believes that the WHO trade agreement is outdated and should be amended to current conditions. The focus on domestic growth and the development of internal free trade within economic zones is expected to intensify, making various groupings increasingly interesting for investors.
The ASEAN Group, with a 3% share of the global GDP, is considered the most promising for the highest growth rate. However, the CPTPP group of countries may not deliver the necessary growth momentum. The outlook for global growth is weak, leading to a growing likelihood of a fight about trade and GDP growth.
Other factors contributing to the economic slowdown include the unsolved Brexit chaos and trade frictions between Canada, Mexico, and the US. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised their global GDP growth forecasts lower throughout the year, indicating a challenging period ahead.
The leading Democratic candidate who ran against President Trump in the 2020 U.S. presidential election was Joe Biden. He gained significant delegate support and eventually secured the nomination, surpassing Bernie Sanders, who withdrew after trailing Biden in delegate counts. Specific polling numbers comparing Biden and Trump around that time are not provided in the search results.
Many analysts in the financial markets consider it likely that President Trump will win the next term. The primary scenario is that future GDP growth will be concentrated on the US and China as the leading zones. Each group/economic zone is expected to develop their internal free trade further, making various groupings increasingly interesting for investors.
Graphic one shows President Trump's approval rates over time, with the current rate at 43.5%. Graphic two shows the share of global GDP, with the US at 24%, Eurozone at 18%, China at 16%, CPTPP at 13%, ASEAN at 3%, and India at 3%. The global economic situation remains complex and uncertain, with the focus squarely on the US and China as the key players shaping the future of global growth.
