Iran's resolute leader, Ali Khamenei, finds himself in a combative position, grappling for his political existence.
Bold and Brash:
In the heart of the Mideast's tempest, Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei faces his most daunting challenge yet, as Israel takes the offensive with bombardments on crucial nuclear, military, and infrastructure sites. For over three decades, Khamenei, the unyielding leader of the Islamic Republic, has endured international sanctions, regional tensions, and domestic protests — all in the name of preserving his firm grasp on power.
Israel's aggressive strikes have brought down Iran's top military brass, destroyed key nuclear facilities, and decimated Khamenei's inner circle. Energy infrastructure has been crippled, and massive exoduses from Tehran have followed.
The Islamic Republic, in response, has retaliated with deadly strikes on Israeli cities, yet the asymmetry in firepower leaves Tehran vulnerable to Israeli air raids and potential US intervention on Israel's side. A sense of deja vu hangs over Iran, as the country's past clashes with Iraq in the 80s come to mind.
Moans of the '80s
Iran, a year young in 1980, found itself entangled in an exasperating eight-year war with Iraq, instigated by the brutal dictator Saddam Hussein. With the backing of most Western and regional powers, the carnage caused lingering trauma for the Islamic Republic. Khamenei, in realizing the importance of engagement in asymmetrical warfare, built a network of regional proxies for deterrence against direct aggression on Iranian soil.
Acquiring what was believed to be the largest missile arsenal among regional countries, the Islamic Republic gained a semblance of security. The deterrent allowed Khamenei to uphold his belligerent rhetoric against the US while keeping conflicts away from Iran's borders and brutally silencing dissent.
Following the Israeli attacks in October 2023, however, Khamenei's key supporters – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Yemen's Houthis, and Syria's Bashar al-Assad – have gradually seen their power wane, leaving Iran exposed and vulnerable. The dismantling of the "Axis of Resistance" has opened the door for Israel to confront Iran head-on.
A Modern Cuban Missile Crisis?
Iran's air defenses were battered when Israel and Iran engaged in a barrage of missile strikes in October. With Israeli jets now commandeering Iranian airspace, it remains uncertain how long Iran can sustain its deterrent — its sophisticated missile arsenal — in the ongoing confrontation.
As of Wednesday, Khamenei vowed, "We must give a strong response to the terrorist Zionist regime. We will show the Zionists no mercy." Israel's ability to infiltrate Iranian defenses, toppling senior aides and raising questions about the possibility of assassinating Khamenei himself, showcases just how vulnerable Iran's leadership has become.
Although Khamenei has remained defiant, there is concerns and confusion surrounding his ultimate objectives. Donald Trump appears to be drawing back Iran to the negotiating table through Israeli military action. However, analysts warn that any attempt to assassinate Khamenei may have the opposite effect, precipitating Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
As the complex web of political and military implications unfolds, the one question remains: What will replace the Islamic Republic of Iran?
Sources:
- BBC - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57873962
- Reuters - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-iraq-iran-exclusive-assassination-plot-foiled-iranian-official-2021-10-03/
- Foreign Policy Magazine - https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/12/iran-israel-strikes-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-yom-kippur/
- The New York Times - https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/11/world/middleeast/iran-israel-missile-strike.html
- The Guardian - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/10/12/the-chilling-possible-sequel-to-israels-strikes-on-iran-they-could-lead-to-regime-change
- The impact of the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran extends beyond the realm of war-and-conflicts, as it weighs heavily on the economy and politics of the Middle East.
- In the face of mounting pressure from Israel, Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a symbol of leadership in the Islamic Republic, is grappling with the erosion of his carefully built network of regional proxies, a cornerstone of his foreign policy.
- As the fascination of democracy and economic progress continues to grow among the youth in the Middle East, the question lingers: Will the eventual fall of the Islamic Republic pave the way for a more democratic Iran, aligning itself with the general news of the global community?
- The concern over the destabilization of the region due to the potential fall of the Islamic Republic is slowly seeping into finance and business circles, with some analysts predicting a volatile market in the near future.
