Kazakhstan Pursues Strategic Advantages Amidst Tough US Tariff Sanctions
In the heart of Asia, Astana recently found itself in the global spotlight thanks to an unexpected announcement – a full-blown trade war – from the White House. U.S. President Donald Trump declared "America's Liberation Day," introducing mirror tariffs on almost every nation, including neighboring Kazakhstan.
Facing a whopping 27% tariff – the largest in Central Asia – the nation's economic specialists are rather unfazed, predicting a minimal impact. Even experts see a potential silver lining: these tariffs could spark closer cooperation between Astana and Washington.
With the United States only accounting for 3% of Kazakhstan's foreign trade, the European Union and other nations remain the country's primary trade allies. About 85% of Kazakhstan's exports to the U.S. – including oil, uranium, and silver – are exempt from these tariffs, according to the Ministry of Trade and Integration. The new measures will only affect 4.8% of Kazakhstan's total U.S. exports.
Relax, Kazakhstan. It isn't all doom and gloom. Darren Spinck, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, explains, "Only around 5% of non-energy or non-natural resource trade between Kazakhstan and the U.S. is subject to that 27% tariff, leaving considerable room for negotiation."
Negotiation could lead to a broader agreement that benefits both economies, Spinck hopes. "The majority of Kazakhstan's exports to the U.S. – natural resources and energy – remain unaffected. So the economic impact will be minimal," he added.
He's not alone in this viewpoint. Independent financial analyst Andrey Chebotаrev concurs, emphasizing that about 80% of Kazakhstan's exports are shielded due to special provisions.
While Kazakhstan-U.S. trade reached $4.2 billion in 2024, it still doesn't rank among Kazakhstan's top five export destinations. Astana mainly exports mineral fuels, uranium, silver, refined copper, and raw alloys to the U.S. This diversified export mix positions Kazakhstan as a crucial, yet underrecognized, player in the U.S. supply chain.
Expressing optimism, Spinck envisions potential for the U.S. to scale back the tariffs, and even pave the way for permanent normal trade relations. This could attract more U.S. investment in Kazakhstan and boost infrastructure development, particularly the Middle Corridor and mining sector.
However, the eager EU might not bask in Kazakhstan's misfortune. Skepticism remains whether Kazakhstan would shift its trade allegiance to the EU. Spinck acknowledges the EU's increasing interest in Central Asia, especially with recent developments, but doesn't foresee a major shift.
On the global geopolitical stage, the U.S.-China tensions are escalating amidst Beijing's export restrictions on rare earth elements, a move expected to strain global supply chains for weapons, electronics, and consumer goods. Spinck suggests that the U.S. will require diversification of its rare earth supplies in the future, and Central Asia – especially Kazakhstan – holds enormous potential.
As the geopolitical and economic consequences of the U.S. tariffs unfold, it is clear that Kazakhstan, along with Central Asian nations, will have to navigate a complex, ever-changing regional landscape. Time will tell if they rise to the challenge or crumble under its weight.
- The 27% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Kazakhstan are expected to have a minimal impact on the nation's economy, according to economic specialists and independent financial analysts.
- Darren Spinck, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, believes that these tariffs could highlight the potential for closer cooperation between Astana and Washington, as only 5% of non-energy or non-natural resource trade between Kazakhstan and the U.S. is subject to the 27% tariff.
- Industry analysts are emphasizing that around 80% of Kazakhstan's exports are shielded due to special provisions, which could potentially be a significant factor in future negotiations regarding tariffs.
