Oil Producing Countries' (OPEC) production is on the rise, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) is witnessing a decline.

Oil Producing Countries' (OPEC) production is on the rise, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) is witnessing a decline.

In the world of global energy markets, two influential organizations, OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), have released their forecasts for oil demand in 2025 and 2026. The predictions paint a starkly different picture, with OPEC remaining bullish and the IEA being more bearish, causing a notable forecast gap that complicates market expectations.

According to OPEC's August 2025 report, global oil demand is expected to reach 105.14 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 106.52 million bpd in 2026. This represents a growth of about 1.30 million bpd over 2024 for 2025 and a further increase for 2026. In contrast, the IEA's forecast shows a much more cautious outlook, predicting a demand of 103.74 million bpd for 2025 and 104.44 million bpd for 2026, with growth of about 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026.

This demand gulf, approximately 610,000 bpd for 2025 and even larger for 2026, is due in part to different methodologies and assumptions about economic growth, energy demand trajectories, and geopolitical factors affecting major consumers like China, Brazil, and India. The IEA's lowered demand forecast reflects ongoing cautiousness due to lackluster demand growth and consumer sentiment, while OPEC expects stronger consumption backed by improving economies.

This divergence between the two organizations reflects fundamentally different views on global economic strength and oil consumption patterns. The IEA, for instance, cites weaker demand in emerging markets and persistent economic uncertainties, while OPEC is more optimistic about stronger economies driving higher demand.

In Russia, the situation is also causing concern. Lyudmila Rykotianskaya, an equity market expert at BCS Mir Investments, warned of the risk of the market going into a supply surplus as the fall-winter season approaches. This warning comes as Russia's oil exports dropped to a five-year low in July, according to the IEA's July report. Nikolai Dudchenko, an analyst, agrees that it is unlikely that Russia's exports will significantly increase in the near future. He expects the situation with prices to depend on factors such as trade wars, OPEC+ actions, and geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, analysts like Vladimir Chernov at Freedom Finance Global and the U.S. Energy Information Administration expect Brent to hover around $60 per barrel by the end of 2025, although Chernov predicts a drop to $60 per barrel. This prediction was supported by the energy ministry's lowered 2026 average Brent price forecast from $58 to $51 per barrel, which led to a 0.9% drop in oil prices on August 12.

In conclusion, the divergent forecasts from OPEC and the IEA are causing uncertainty in the global oil market. As Russia and other major oil producers prepare for potential changes in demand and supply, the market will need to carefully monitor these forecasts and the factors that influence them.

[1] OPEC (2025). World Oil Outlook 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/618.htm

[2] IEA (2025). Oil Market Report, August 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2025

[3] IEA (2025). World Energy Outlook 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025

[4] EIA (2025). Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

1. The Finance sector is abuzz with the contrasting predictions of the OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) regarding oil demand in 2025 and 2026, with the former anticipating stronger consumption and the latter expecting weaker demand.
2. In the Oil-and-Gas industry, the disparity between OPEC's positive outlook and the IEA's more pessimistic stance on global economic strength and oil consumption patterns is creating uncertainty, particularly for major producers like Russia.
3. The Business implications of this divergent forecast extend beyond the energy industry, as geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and OPEC+ actions are now considered critical factors in determining the price of Brent crude oil.

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