Online businesses could encounter the most challenging financial outlook, according to a Duke-Fed survey, due to potential tariff increases that may fail to produce price increases.
In a joint survey conducted by Duke University and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, tariffs have emerged as a major concern for U.S. businesses. The survey, which gathered responses from approximately 465 U.S. firms, was carried out between May 19 and June 6, 2025.
The survey reveals that tariffs have contributed to increased price growth, higher unit input cost growth, and weakened real revenue growth for U.S. businesses. Finance chiefs anticipate price increases rising from 3.5% to 4.8%, unit input cost growth climbing from 3.9% to 5.2%, and real revenue growth forecasts for 2025 falling from 6.8% to 5.4% compared to earlier projections.
The survey highlights the following impacts of tariffs on U.S. businesses:
- Price increases: Firms expect to pass through tariff-induced cost increases to customers, driving higher prices.
- Unit input cost growth: Tariff-related uncertainties and costs have pushed unit input cost growth expectations up sharply.
- Real revenue growth: Revenue growth projections have been revised downward as tariff pressures constrain business expansion and consumer demand.
CFOs report heightened concerns around tariffs and trade policy, with 40% identifying them as a key risk factor that is causing postponements and scaling down of capital expenditure, particularly among manufacturing firms. Many firms are also reacting by accelerating purchases to avoid future tariff hikes and seeking new foreign suppliers to mitigate risks.
The tone of economic sentiment across the entire dataset has deteriorated compared to the end of last year. Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer identified this trend in his comments about the survey, stating that real revenue growth for tariff-concerned businesses is expected to contract in 2025. For businesses not reporting that tariff concerns raised prices, their expected nominal sales revenue growth of 5.9% still outpaces their projected price increases of 3.2%, indicating real revenue growth.
However, those concerned about tariffs may face a lose-lose situation, as their expected nominal revenue growth is 4.8%, which lags behind the projected price increases. The median real GDP growth forecast has been cut to 1.4% from 1.9% in Q1.
The latest quarterly survey by Duke University and Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta shows that 40% of businesses identified tariffs and trade policy as a top concern in Q2 2025, a post-pandemic record. Many businesses, like last quarter's report, aren't doing anything if they aren't concerned about tariffs. Tariff-concerned our websites showed greater pessimism than their peers. Firm-level forecasts like revenue or cost growth include responses from 451 to 496 our websites.
In conclusion, tariffs have emerged as a significant factor increasing costs and prices, dampening revenue growth, and causing increased caution in capital investment decisions in the U.S. business community as of Q2 2025.
- The growth in prices of U.S. businesses is anticipated to rise from 3.5% to 4.8% due to tariffs, according to the finance chiefs.
- The survey showcases that tariffs have led to an increase in unit input cost growth, with expectations climbing from 3.9% to 5.2%.
- Real revenue growth projections for 2025 have been revised downward, falling from 6.8% to 5.4%, as a result of tariff pressures.
- The Financial increment of businesses is affected negatively, as the real revenue growth for tariff-concerned businesses is expected to contract in 2025, causing a potential lose-lose situation.
