Potential absence of significant Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLA) for millions of retirees in the year 2026
In 2026, retirees can anticipate a modest increase in Social Security benefits due to the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), with estimates ranging from 2.6% to 2.7%. This increase translates to around $50 to $54 more per month on average[1][2][3]. However, this benefit increase will be largely offset by an elevated rise in Medicare Part B premiums, estimated to increase by 11.5% to 11.6%, from $185 in 2025 to an estimated $206.50 per month in 2026[4].
Approximately 3.6 million retirees may see no increase in their monthly benefits checks due to the hold harmless provision, which caps the increase in Medicare premiums by the actual dollar amount of the COLA[5]. Consequently, many retirees will experience an effective gain only slightly above or close to zero after the premium increase is accounted for.
The Medicare Part B premium increase amounts to roughly $21.50 more per month, which consumes a significant portion of the Social Security COLA increase. High-income retirees will face further increases due to Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA) surcharges, which are also projected to rise slightly in 2026[1][2][5].
Medigap (supplemental Medicare insurance) premiums are also expected to rise between 8% and 12%, further impacting retirees' healthcare costs[5].
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is crucial for millions of retirees to maintain their income with rising expenses. In 2025, Medicare Part B premiums increased by 5.9% to $185 per month[6]. It is essential for retirees to consider these factors when planning their financial future.
Additional considerations include the retirement earnings test, which may withhold benefits if a retiree is still working before reaching full retirement age, and the possibility of the government garnishing monthly benefits if it overpaid in a prior year or if the retiree has other federal debts.
[1] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/index.html [2] https://www.aarp.org/politics-policy/voting/info-2024/social-security-cost-of-living-adjustment-cola.html [3] https://www.seniorcitizens.org/news/social-security-cost-of-living-adjustment-cola-announcement-2026 [4] https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/cms-announces-2026-medicare-premiums-and-deductibles-under-medicare-advantage-and-prescription [5] https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/projected-medicare-part-b-premiums-and-deductibles-for-2026/ [6] https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/pr2024-24-eqat.html
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