Prices are going up significantly in Belarus.
The current state of Belarus' economy is a major source of worry, as the nation's external trade deficit continues to grow. According to recent data from Belstat, imports have surpassed exports by an alarming $2.3 billion since the beginning of 2025. This unfavorable balance has significant implications for the domestic economy and the average Belarusian.
Economist and expert in state management and international development, Alisa Ryzhichenko, commented on the situation in an interview with "Euroradio". She stresses that the negativity in the Belarusian economy is substantial and points out several concerns.
Firstly, the imbalance will likely lead to inflationary pressure and increasing prices for goods within the country. There are a few reasons behind this. Economist Ryzhichenko explains that exports have been significantly decreasing, particularly to Russia and non-CIS countries due to new sanctions and tariffs. As a result, imports are increasing since domestic demand continues to grow, with monetary policy remaining loose. With a lack of tightening, money remains accessible to the population, thus keeping demand high and necessitating more imported goods.
In this situation, boosting exports becomes crucial to avoid a large trade deficit and bring in foreign currency. Unfortunately, producers appear to be finding it difficult to achieve this goal. Consequently, price increases are expected, with food and industrial goods anticipated to become more costly.
"- If authorities don't take additional measures, inflation could easily reach 10% by the end of the year," warns Alisa Ryzhichenko. The authorities had aimed to keep inflation at 5% in 2025, but it has already surpassed this figure.
While most Belarusians may not feel the impact yet, it's the holders of average and below-average incomes who might be most affected by inflation. It remains unclear how accurate the official statistics reported by the Belarusian state statistical agency are, especially with wage levels in the regions reported to be relatively low.
So, while food prices may decrease in the short term due to the harvesting of local vegetables and fruits, they are expected to rise again in September-October. Ordinary Belarusians, therefore, may have to face the burden of higher living costs, despite minimum official poverty rates.
It is essential to remember that, despite occasional attempts to focus on agriculture and secure a large potato and onion harvest, the Belarusian government consistently faces failure in achieving its goals. Every year, the illusion is entertained that Belarusian agriculture will plant fields with potatoes and onions, sell them to Russia at a profit, and stabilize the economy. But, according to Alisa Ryzhichenko, this is nothing more than a plan that rarely comes to fruition.
Notes:- Ryzhichenko’s comments and analysis are a valuable perspective on the economic situation in Belarus.- The trade deficit in Q1 2025 is a indication of wider economic issues and the need for decisive action.- Inflation, along with other economic pressures, poses a threat to the financial well-being of ordinary Belarusians.- The reliance on potatoes and onions is a symbolic yet ineffective approach to solving the trade deficit issue in the long term.- Ultimately, confronting the causes of the trade deficit, such as implementing export diversification, import substitution, and structural reforms, are essential for promoting durable economic growth and stability.
- Economist Alisa Ryzhichenko notes that the ongoing trade deficit in Belarus, with exports decreasing and imports increasing, could lead to a significant inflationary pressure, potentially elevating prices for goods within the country by up to 10%.
- In light of the growing trade deficit and inflationary concerns, Alisa Ryzhichenko emphasizes the importance of boosting exports to avoid a large trade deficit and prevent further financial strain on ordinary Belarusians, many of whom are already vulnerable to the impact of inflation.
