Prolonged Bitcoin Adjustment Predicted by CryptoQuant
In the cryptocurrency world, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be a subject of interest as the market outlook for mid-2025 remains largely optimistic. Despite a recent wave of profit-taking by large holders, commonly known as 'whales', and some short-term pullbacks, experts predict a continuation of the bullish trend towards a peak around $135,000 to $140,000 by the end of the year.
Sean Dawson, the head of research at Derive, highlighted that the profit-taking comes from both old and new whales. This trend is not uncommon, as it has also been observed in miner sell-offs after July's all-time high.
The current market outlook aligns with Bitcoin's historical performance, as the fourth quarter typically delivers the strongest gains, with a median return of 52%. This trend is supported by Capriole's Edwards, who states that Q4 is historically favourable for strong returns for Bitcoin.
On-chain data corroborates this, showing a third major wave of whale profit-taking since mid-2024. However, this wave pattern is seen as a temporary breather rather than a full reversal. An Elliott wave expert forecasts that Bitcoin is completing the third major wave of whale profit-taking, which sets the stage for a resumption of upward momentum that could push BTC prices near $140,000 by year-end 2025.
Analysts also note improving investor sentiment and bullish market structures driven by factors like ETF inflows and declining exchange balances, which support steady gains and positive momentum in Bitcoin. However, the market is expected to face some volatility and a challenging bear market phase in 2026 following this rally.
Interestingly, Charles Edwards, an analyst, calls Bitcoin "undervalued" based on his Energy Value model. This suggests that Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental worth, potentially setting the stage for further gains.
Options traders, on the other hand, are preparing for a rough two months ahead, buying put options for August and September. They expect a price reversal of somewhere between 10-30% over the next month, targeting a potential 10-30% downside into September.
Despite these cautions, CryptoQuant, an on-chain data firm, expects renewed accumulation and a subsequent breakout to a new all-time high. This prediction is supported by historical trends and the fact that Bitcoin's price hit a record high of $123,300 on July 14.
Since then, the crypto market has drifted lower, awaiting a fresh catalyst. On-chain data firm CryptoQuant reported the pullback in a report on Thursday. However, the firm remains optimistic about a breakout to a new all-time high in the future.
In summary, while whale profit-taking since mid-2024 has introduced some pullback pressures, the broader outlook remains bullish for Bitcoin through the remainder of 2025, with a high likelihood of a pullback representing a pause before further gains rather than a sustained downturn. Institutions are content with their returns, de-risking their Bitcoin holdings, suggesting a steady and optimistic market outlook for the world's leading cryptocurrency.
- The crypto market outlook for mid-2025 is optimistic for Bitcoin (BTC), with experts predicting a continuation of the bullish trend towards a peak around $135,000 to $140,000.
- Sean Dawson, the head of research at Derive, noted that the profit-taking by whales, both old and new, is not uncommon and has also been observed in miner sell-offs after July's all-time high.
- Analysts note that improving investor sentiment and bullish market structures driven by factors like ETF inflows and declining exchange balances support steady gains and positive momentum in Bitcoin.
- Charles Edwards, an analyst, suggests that Bitcoin is "undervalued" based on his Energy Value model, potentially setting the stage for further gains.
- Options traders expect a possible price reversal of between 10-30% over the next month, but CryptoQuant, an on-chain data firm, remains optimistic about a breakout to a new all-time high for Bitcoin in the future.
