Quarterly retail sales growth in Romania slows to a rate of 1.8% year-on-year in Q2.
Romania's retail sales volume growth is forecasted to slow down somewhat for the rest of 2025, with recent data indicating a moderation in retail sales growth compared to earlier periods.
In the first half of 2025, retail sales rose by a seasonally adjusted 3.4% year-on-year. However, growth slowed in the second quarter, with June showing only a 2.5% year-on-year increase, the slowest in 18 months.
The slowdown in retail sales growth can be attributed to several factors. Inflation pressures, with a 7.84% year-on-year increase in July, and deteriorating economic and consumer sentiment are likely to constrain stronger retail sales expansion. Consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since November 2022, and sentiment in the retail sector declined.
Regarding fiscal measures, while specific new fiscal policy impacts on retail growth in 2025 are not detailed, the overall economic context—marked by slowing retail sales growth and increasing inflation—implies that fiscal tightening or uncertainty may be weighing on consumer demand. The reduced economic sentiment and confidence suggest fiscal conditions and possibly monetary policy tightening are restraining faster retail sales growth.
Looking ahead, Erste Research estimates a +2.3% rise in retail sales volume in Romania for the whole of 2025. However, the trends indicate a slowdown relative to early 2025 performance. Further fiscal stimulus or relaxation would be required to strongly boost retail volume growth under current conditions.
It's important to note that car fuel sales have shown volatile dynamics over the past years, broadly reflecting prices but not necessarily an upward or downward trend. On the other hand, households purchased fewer food goods both in Q1 and Q2 of the year, with food sales only showing a slight recovery in Q2. Non-food sales contracted in Q2, and the annual increase eased compared to earlier periods.
In conclusion, retail sales growth in Romania is expected to remain modest but positive for the rest of 2025, with around 2.5–3.4% annual growth experienced so far. Inflation pressures and deteriorating economic and consumer sentiment are likely to constrain stronger retail sales expansion. Fiscal and monetary measures implied by the data appear to have a dampening effect on retail sales growth momentum.
The slowdown in retail sales growth may be impacting the overall business environment, potentially causing finance-related challenges for retailers due to the constrained consumer demand. The anticipated +2.3% rise in retail sales volume for the rest of 2025, as estimated by Erste Research, could present a limited opportunity for business growth in the financial sector.
