Remaining quantum excitement on the stock exchange: Assessment of IonQ and Rigetti's market value
In the rapidly evolving world of technology, a new frontier is slowly but steadily rolling towards the markets: quantum computing. According to Roman Przibylla, Maverix Security, this could be the next big tech wave.
Key players in this exciting field include large tech companies like Alphabet (Google) and Amazon. Alphabet recently developed the "Willow" quantum computing chip, capable of completing a benchmark computation in under five minutes – an operation estimated to take a classical supercomputer 10 septillion years. Amazon is developing its "Ocelot" chip, aiming to leverage its cloud infrastructure, AWS, to provide rentable quantum computing services.
Beyond these tech giants, quantum start-ups and regional hubs are also making significant strides. Governments have backed numerous start-ups, particularly in Asia, where five out of 19 new quantum technology (QT) start-ups in 2024 were founded. One such start-up is PsiQuantum in Australia, which received a $620 million government package to build a fault-tolerant quantum computer.
Governments worldwide are major investors in quantum technology. In 2024, global government investments exceeded $1.8 billion, with major commitments such as Japan’s $7.4 billion investment and Spain’s $900 million. China is heavily investing, with estimates suggesting around $15 billion spent and plans to mobilize over $138 billion into cutting-edge tech including quantum computing by 2025. Denmark is also active, with significant university collaborations and grants exceeding 1.5 billion DKK for quantum computing programs.
A critical technological challenge in quantum computing has been qubit error rates. Alphabet's Willow chip notably addresses this by reducing error rates even as qubit count rises, marking an important advance towards practical quantum computing.
The quantum computing sector is less a race and more a complex global ecosystem, with collaborative research hubs, government programs, and private players contributing to rapid innovation and commercialization. The sector is seen as a potential breakthrough to unlock new capabilities in AI, logistics, weather forecasting, and similar complex problems, suggesting a transformative impact on diverse industries over the coming years.
The quantum technology market is forecasted to reach $106 billion by 2040, underpinning strong long-term investment potential. Alphabet and Amazon represent comparatively safer, conservative investments in quantum computing due to their diverse businesses and financial strength. Quantum computing start-ups may present high-risk, high-reward opportunities but often struggle with funding compared to tech giants.
In summary, the quantum computing market for financial investments in 2025 is dominated by a mix of well-funded governmental programs, major tech companies pushing cloud-integrated quantum hardware, and an expanding network of start-ups – driven by breakthroughs in speed, error correction, and real-world applicability with an eye toward AI and complex problem domains. Quantum Computing is not a bet on the next quarter, but on the next decade, with technological uncertainty being high and the valuation of many pure players. However, the potential rewards could be substantial, making it an exciting area for those willing to take a long-term view.
Investors seeking opportunities in the realm of quantum technology might consider Alphabet and Amazon, as the former has developed the "Willow" quantum computing chip, capable of completing complex computations quickly, and the latter is developing the "Ocelot" chip, aiming to capitalize on its cloud infrastructure, AWS, to offer rentable quantum computing services.
Governments worldwide are playing a significant role in driving innovation in quantum technology, investing billions of dollars and supporting various start-ups, which could present high-risk, high-reward opportunities but often struggle with funding compared to tech giants.
