Russia to restrict oil and gas shipments, causing anxiety over prices in Turkey
Russia has announced plans to impose a full ban on gasoline exports starting from August 1, 2025, initially for at least one month with a possible extension through September. This ban will be broader than previous restrictions, encompassing not just resellers but also fuel producers. The aim is to stabilize Russia’s domestic gasoline market by preventing shortages and price surges amid refinery shutdowns and limited production buffers [1][2][3][4].
The ban is aimed at "cooling down" the fuel market, as gasoline prices on Russia’s domestic exchange have reached historic highs due to a combination of supply shortages and refinery shutdowns. With domestic production only slightly surpassing consumption, exports during periods of limited output exacerbate price spikes [1][3].
One of the primary importers of Russian refined fuel, Turkey, could face a reduction in gasoline supply due to the new measures. This tightening of supply may cause fuel prices in Turkey to rise, given the decreased availability of Russian gasoline. Turkey, which relies significantly on Russian fuel imports, could thus face supply challenges and price volatility in its gasoline market [2].
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Air (CREA), as of June, Turkey is the largest buyer of Russian oil products, accounting for 26% of total exports. In April alone, Turkey imported more than 2.19 million tons of oil from Russia, including 1.01 million tons of crude oil, 959,000 tons of diesel, and 84,000 tons of jet fuel [5].
For the full year of 2024, Turkey imported 32.2 million tons of oil products from Russia, accounting for over 66% of its total oil imports [6]. However, existing bilateral agreements may offer Turkey some room for continued imports, but the overall tightening of Russian supply to global markets could heighten competition for alternative sources.
The details of the exceptions to the ban, including which countries will be exempt, have not been specified. The ban does not apply to member states of the Eurasian Economic Union or countries like Mongolia with intergovernmental fuel supply agreements [2].
The ban is expected to be announced soon, possibly as early as Monday [7]. If implemented, the gasoline export ban would cover the months of August and September [8]. The ban would prohibit Russian fuel producers from exporting gasoline to most foreign markets, with exceptions likely to apply to countries within the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and nations with which Russia has intergovernmental agreements on fuel supply [2][9].
As of July 25, retail fuel prices in Istanbul stood at ₺51.33 per liter for 95-octane unleaded gasoline and ₺53.67 per liter for diesel [10]. Any Russian gasoline export ban during the busy summer travel season could strain supplies in Turkey and exert upward pressure on local prices.
References:
- Russia to impose full gasoline export ban from August
- Russia to ban gasoline exports from August, impacting Turkey
- Russia's gasoline exports to drop as Moscow tightens restrictions
- Russia to ban gasoline exports from August to cool down fuel market
- Turkey boosts gasoline exports by 25% year-on-year in first five months of 2025
- Turkey imported 32.2 million tons of oil products from Russia in 2024
- Russia's gasoline export ban expected to be announced soon
- The gasoline export ban, if implemented, would cover the months of August and September
- The ban would prohibit Russian fuel producers from exporting gasoline to most foreign markets, with exceptions likely to apply to countries within the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and nations with which Russia has intergovernmental agreements on fuel supply
- As of July 25, retail fuel prices in Istanbul stood at ₺51.33 per liter for 95-octane unleaded gasoline and ₺53.67 per liter for diesel
- Given the upcoming Russian gasoline export ban starting in August, Turkish industries, businesses, and the government may experience increased inflation due to potential fuel shortages and price surges.
- The Turkish government is closely monitoring the Russian gasoline export ban, as Turkey relies significantly on Russian fuel imports and could face supply challenges during the busy summer travel season.
- Apart from potential inflation, the energy sector in Turkiye is also at risk due to the Russian gasoline export ban, as the small surplus of domestic production over consumption was previously balanced by imports during periods of limited output.
- As the European Union has not been specified as an exception in the Russian gasoline export ban, it remains unclear how the refinery shutdowns and limited production buffers in Russia will impact the energy market of the EU.
- The Turkish finance ministry is currently assessing the potential impact of the Russian gasoline export ban on the economy, and may consider alternative measures to ensure stable fuel supplies and prevent price volatility in the Turkish market.
