Russian Ruble Strengthens Against U.S. Dollar, Exchange Rate Dips Below 80 Rubles for First Time Since mid-April.
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The greenback took a dive on the interbank market, slipping below the 80 ruble mark for the first time since April 21, as per trading data. At its lowest, a dollar traded for 79.5172 rubles. By 12:49 MSK, the slide eased to 0.5%, with a dollar now worth 80.61 rubles. Meanwhile, the euro's worth is at 89.595 rubles (-0.23%), while the exchange rate for the yuan remains at 11.1635 rubles.
The ruble found strength with a decrease in geopolitical risk premium and an increase in oil prices, notes BCS Express expert Mikhail Zeltzer. Yet, the dollar showed a slight uptick due to its rise on the global foreign exchange market thanks to the US-China trade deal.
The ruble's future looks bright in anticipation of renewed talks to resolve the conflict surrounding Ukraine's 'special military operation', Zeltzer hints. President Putin has suggested a resumption of talks with the Ukrainian side in Istanbul starting May 15. On the other hand, President of Ukraine, Zelensky, has confirmed his readiness for this and plans to be in Turkey on that day to meet Putin personally.
According to Zeltzer, high export levels, reduced imports, the Central Bank's tight monetary policy, increased budget rule currency sale limits, and hopes for a convergence of geopolitical positions are hindering currencies' recovery. Startring May 13 though, the currency supply from the CB is set to decrease by nearly 40%, which weakens this factor supporting the ruble. In early summer, the CB might consider shifting towards lowering the rate, export inflows will decrease, and demand for currency under imports will be restored, the expert predicts. In his opinion, the dollar's exchange rate in the medium term will return to the 85-90 ruble level, and the yuan to 11.5-12 rubles.
Insights:Mikhail Zeltzer, an expert at BCS Express, predicts the medium-term exchange rates for the USD and CNY against the RUB as follows:
- USD to RUB: Approximately 80 rubles per dollar
- CNY to RUB: Approximately 11 rubles per yuan
These forecasts are based on current market trends, geopolitical factors, and economic indicators analyzed by the expert. If you need more context or the reasoning behind these predictions, I've got you covered!
The experts' predictions suggest that the exchange rate for the USD could approximate around 80 rubles per dollar, influenced by recent market trends, geopolitical factors, and economic indicators. Additionally, the projected exchange rate for the CNY hints at an estimate of approximately 11 rubles per yuan, also based on current market analysis by experts.
