Saving rates across the Nation's Bank were revealed in June's statistics
Financial institutions in Belarus are offering attractive terms for long-term deposits in the Belarusian ruble, with the average annual rate on new time deposits for a period exceeding 365 days remaining at 14.2% per annum in June, as it was in May. This trend has contributed to an inflow of savings into the banking sector, as high interest rates on deposits in June helped strengthen the resource base of financial organizations.
Time deposits of individuals in the national currency increased by Br298.3 million, or 2.4%, in June, and as of July 1, they amounted to Br12.7 billion. The maintenance of credit activity in the Belarusian economy was also supported by the rates established on the deposit and credit markets in June.
The National Bank of Belarus (NBB) has emphasised the importance of maintaining the trend of devaluation and has tasked the banking sector with increasing time and conditional deposits of the population in the national currency for a period of one year and more by 17-22%. Banks should orient their interest rate policy to maintain a higher yield on ruble savings compared to foreign currency savings.
However, there is no direct information about the NBB's projections or official guidance on the expected trend for short-term deposit rates in Belarus for the rest of 2025. The available economic data and context provide key insights that can inform expectations.
Inflation is accelerating in Belarus. As of June 2025, the annual inflation rate reached 7.3%, the highest since February 2023, driven primarily by rising food prices. Food inflation surged to 10.5% year-on-year in June, significantly outpacing non-food inflation (3.2%) and services inflation (7.1%). The consumer price index rose 0.9% month-on-month in June, up from 0.7% in May, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.
In most economies, central banks tend to adjust deposit rates in response to inflation trends, seeking to maintain positive real returns for savers. With inflation accelerating, especially in essentials like food, the pressure on the NBB to either hold or increase deposit rates (and broader interest rates) to combat inflation and stabilize the currency is heightened. This is a typical response to prevent erosion of savings and capital flight.
Without an explicit statement from the NBB, this remains an inference based on current economic indicators. If inflationary pressures persist or intensify, the NBB is likely to maintain or potentially raise short-term deposit rates to preserve the real value of savings and anchor inflation expectations. This would be consistent with typical central bank responses in emerging markets facing elevated inflation.
Since the beginning of 2025, the average rates on short-term deposits have increased from 8.53% to 11.08%. In the near future, the difference in rates between long and short-term deposits is expected to increase. The National Bank predicts that interest rates on short-term deposits will gradually decrease, while a gradual increase was also observed for long-term deposits, with rates rising from 13.76% at the beginning of 2025 to 14.46% by April. The NBB reported these findings on their website.
Wealth-management firms, recognizing the rising interest rates on short-term deposits, may reevaluate their personal-finance strategies to advise clients to switch from foreign currency savings to Belarusian ruble deposits, as banks are tasked by the National Bank of Belarus (NBB) to increase time and conditional deposits of the population in the national currency for a period of one year and more by 17-22%.
With inflation accelerating in Belarus, especially in essentials like food, and the NBB likely to maintain or potentially raise short-term deposit rates to combat inflation and stabilize the currency, businesses engaged in finance and wealth-management should closely monitor the trend of deposit rates in Belarus for the rest of 2025 and adjust their strategies accordingly.
