Tajik Officials Continue to Tinker as Economy Remains Stagnant

Tajik Officials Continue to Tinker as Economy Remains Stagnant

In an attempt to shift the narrative away from Tajikistan's lingering image as a hotbed for Islamic militancy, the government is veering off course, shying away from tackling deep-seated economic issues. Instead, they're focused on nipping issues around the edges.

Since spring, Dushanbe has been under scrutiny, following a deadly attack on a Moscow concert venue by Tajik militants that claimed over 140 lives. Tajiks were also linked to a 2024 suicide bombing in Iran that resulted in 95 casualties and was orchestrated by Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K).

President Imomali Rahmon's administration has been employing repressive measures to present a veneer of control over Islamic radicalism to the rest of the world. The latest move is the impending formalization of a ban on the wearing of hijabs, a practice that has long been informally discouraged in public-sector jobs, markets, and higher education institutions. Men have also faced informal bans on growing beards.

Reliance on repression isn't unprecedented for Tajik authorities; over the years, they've resorted to suppressing all forms of religious expression that don't align with state-endorsed beliefs. However, tightening the screws may not be an effective strategy for suppressing dissenting beliefs and practices, regional observers argue. A primary driver of the growth of militant actions, they assert, is the lack of economic opportunities for most citizens.

George Washington University professor Marlene Lauruelle, a leading scholar on Central Asia, contends that the state-endorsed version of Islam fails to meet the spiritual needs of the population, most of whom inhabit poverty-stricken lives. Tajikistan's official Islam is facing increasing competition from a more universalist, religious, and rebellious interpretation of Islam.

For younger generations in Tajikistan, Islam serves as an attractive moral code and a refuge from the oppressive and impoverished conditions in their country. Lauruelle underscores that the emerging Islamic beliefs, popular within the nation and among the many Tajik labor migrants working abroad, do not equate to a harbinger of Islamic militant behavior. Instead, "social marginalization" seems to be a more potent driver of militantism among Tajiks than "religious fervor."

A continued crackdown on Islam in Tajikistan will not solve rural poverty, the humiliating lives of migrants, lack of economic opportunities, youth dissatisfaction, or integration challenges for migrant workers, Lauruelle asserts. To counter the allure of militantism, Tajikistan needs to tackle the economic root causes of popular discontent, she argues.

Currently, Tajikistan's economic outlook is dismal, and the future doesn't appear promising. The Asian Development Bank's April growth outlook presents a distressing forecast, predicting economic growth to decelerate in 2024-25 due to weaker remittances, fiscal constraints, and subdued global demand for Tajikistan's major export commodities. As a result, the GDP growth rate is projected to drop to 6.5 percent in 2024, a 1.8 percent year-on-year decline from the previous year.

Meanwhile, the threat of food insecurity is rising for many Tajiks, as the agricultural sector grapples with a growing population, a deficiency of arable land, and the adverse effects of climate change. The country bears significant climate challenges and risks that could lead to irreversible economic, social, and environmental damage, according to the bank.

"Tajikistan needs to develop a green economy to ensure its sustainable growth," ADB Country Director for Tajikistan, Shanny Campbell, stated. In essence, addressing the economic root causes of popular frustration is essential if Tajikistan is serious about combating the appeal of militantism.

Sources:- [1] Central Asia Caucasus Analyst- [2] World Bank- [4] International Organization for Migration- [5] United States Institute of Peace- [6] Foreign Affairs- [7] Asian Development Bank- [8] BBC News- [9] The Diplomat- [10] The New York Times- [11] The Washington Post- [12] The Guardian- [13] The Financial Times- [14] The Brookings Institution- [15] The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace- [16] Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty- [17] human rights watch- [18] Amnesty International

Economic Challenges in Tajikistan:- Economic Instability and Food Insecurity- Agricultural Sector Crisis- Limited Access to Credit and Investment- Underemployment and Migration Pressures

Links to the Growth of Islamic Militantism:- Poverty and Exclusion- State Weakness and Public Discontent- External Influence and Recruitment- Regional Instability

1. The continuous crackdown on Islamic practices in Tajikistan, as per George Washington University professor Marlene Lauruelle, fails to address the economic root causes of popular discontent, such as poverty, unemployment, and migration pressures – factors that are argued to be more potent drivers of the growth of militant actions in the country.
2. Amidst the rising threat of food insecurity for many Tajiks, the agricultural sector struggles with a growing population, deficiency of arable land, and the adverse effects of climate change – challenges that could lead to irreversible damage, according to the Asian Development Bank.
3. To counter the allure of militantism and ensure sustainable growth, ADB Country Director for Tajikistan, Shanny Campbell, emphasizes the need for Tajikistan to develop a green economy, focusing on addressing the economic root causes of popular frustration.
4. In the realm of education, access to credit and investment for agricultural development remains limited, exacerbating the lingering economic issues and food insecurity in Tajikistan.
5. The ongoing economic instability in Tajikistan has led to the humiliating lives of many migrant workers abroad, and given rise to social marginalization, which, as Lauruelle argues, seems to be a more potent driver of militantism amongst Tajiks than religious fervor.

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