Title: Unraveling the Surge in MRNA Stock Prices
Amidst the surge of Covid-19 and flu cases in the U.S., Moderna's stock soared by 12% on January 7, 20XX. Other vaccine manufacturers also saw a rise in their share prices, with Novavax up 11% and BioNTech ADR increasing by 5%. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported a spike in the influenza test positivity rate, rising from 13.6% to 18.7%, and a similar trend in Covid-19 positivity rates, climbing to 7.1% in the past week (7.1%) compared to the past four weeks' 5.5% figure [1].
Due to the growing demand for vaccines, Moderna's sales could see a significant boost, although their recently approved Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) vaccine sales have yet to generate substantial revenue. The vaccine distributors had completed their orders before regulatory approval was granted for Moderna's RSV vaccine, leading to only $10 million in sales during the previous quarter [2].
Moderna's financial situation has been challenging, with the company's revenue falling 64% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $6.8 billion in 20XX. The company anticipates a drop in sales to approximately $3.5 billion in 20XX+1 [4].
Despite the struggles, Moderna's stock has shown mixed growth over the past few years. Returns for the stock were 143% in 20XX+1, -29% in 20XX+2, -45% in 20XX+3, and -58% in 20XX+4. Although the company's stock growth has been volatile, the Trefis "High Quality Portfolio" has provided better returns with less risk compared to the S&P 500 index over the past four years [2].
As for the future, some analysts believe Moderna is currently undervalued, with an average price estimate of $74, representing more than 50% upside from its current level of $48 [3]. Moderna's potential revenue-driving factors include its new RSV vaccine's potential for increased adoption due to advantages in storage, administration, and patient safety over other RSV vaccines. Additionally, Moderna's skin cancer vaccine, in combination with Merck's blockbuster Keytruda immunotherapy, showed promising results in reducing recurrence and death rates in phase three or four melanoma patients [2].
However, it is crucial to consider Moderna's peers and industry benchmarks to make informed investment decisions. Other valuable comparisons across various industries can be found at "Peer Comparisons" [5].
Sources:
[1] CDC weekly data - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.html[2] Moderna 10-K report - https://investor.modernatx.com/static-files/7ce1cb0f-8cc1-4baa-a408-f206e66d1a96[3] Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance data[4] "Moderna’s Peers" data - https://www.trefis.com/market-beating-portfolios/moder-nasdaq-mrna[5] Trefis analysis - https://www.trefis.com/stock-analysis/moderna-mrna/
- The surge in Covid-19 and flu cases contributed to Moderna's MRNA valuation, as their vaccine saw a 12% increase in stock price on January 7, 20XX.
- Despite the successful rollout of their Covid-19 vaccine, Moderna's revenue from their RSV vaccine has only generated $10 million so far, due to completed orders before regulatory approval.
- Novavax also experienced a rise in share prices, up 11%, following the trend set by Moderna and other vaccine manufacturers during the surge in Covid-19 and flu cases.
- Analysts believe Moderna is currently undervalued, with an average price estimate of $74, offering over 50% upside from its current level of $48, despite the company's financial challenges and volatile stock growth.
