Trump's potential appointee for the head of the labor statistics agency may delay the monthly jobs report due to doubts about its accuracy
In a surprising move, President Donald Trump's nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), E.J. Antoni, has criticized the methodology and assumptions of the monthly jobs report as fundamentally flawed. Antoni, a Heritage Foundation economist, has suggested that the BLS should suspend the monthly jobs reports until more accurate data collection methods are developed [1][2].
Antoni's critique centers on the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy in the report. The Bureau issues monthly numbers to provide a timely glimpse into the labor market, even though these figures are subject to later revision. Antoni argues that the institutional assumption that timeliness justifies preliminary and potentially inaccurate data releases should be reconsidered in favor of more accurate quarterly data releases [1][2].
Specifically, Antoni highlights these issues:
- The monthly jobs report is based on preliminary survey data, with some respondents providing data late, leading to frequent and sometimes large revisions of previous months’ employment figures.
- These revisions make it difficult for users of the report—like businesses and policymakers—to rely on the numbers in real time for decision-making.
- Antoni therefore argues the current approach "needs to be fixed immediately," implicitly criticizing the assumption that the monthly release timing outweighs the accuracy concerns [1][2].
Antoni's stance connects to broader political contexts. His nomination followed President Trump’s firing of the prior BLS commissioner after what Trump described as a "rigged" July jobs report showing modest job gains and large downward revisions to prior months. Antoni has also been criticized by economists across the political spectrum for his alleged misunderstandings of economic data and for advocating politicization of the BLS [3][4][5]. However, his methodological critique specifically focuses on the conceptual problem of issuing preliminary monthly employment data that frequently require revision as complete survey responses arrive later [1][2].
Antoni has proposed keeping the quarterly data publication instead of the monthly jobs report until the issues are corrected. He points to a declining response rate below 50% as a key factor contributing to inaccuracies. Antoni warns that the monthly jobs report misleads key economic decision-makers from Washington to Wall Street [1][2].
Kevin Roberts, president of The Heritage Foundation, endorsed E.J. Antoni as a "stellar choice" to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. President Trump wrote on Truth Social that Antoni will ensure the numbers released are honest and accurate. Antoni is currently the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation [1][2].
Notably, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its May and June figures downward by 258,000 jobs following Antoni's critique. The dismissal of Erika McEntarfer, the former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, by President Trump also followed the release of new data showing that job growth had been significantly overstated [1][2].
As Antoni faces Senate confirmation before ascending to the top spot at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, his proposals for reforming the monthly jobs report are generating intense debate among economists and policymakers.
[1] Fox News Digital [2] The Heritage Foundation [3] The Washington Post [4] The New York Times [5] Bloomberg News
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