US Industry Shows Slight Improvement, but Remains in Contraction
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index for September has shown a slight upturn in US industry, but it remains below the growth threshold, indicating a contraction in economic activity. This follows an analysis published by Chief Economist Chris Williamson on October 1, 2025. The financial markets anticipate a 0.25 percentage point cut in the key interest rate by the U.S. Federal Reserve at its next meeting.
The ISM index rose by 0.4 points to 49.1 points in September, a marginal improvement but still below the 50-point guaranteed growth threshold. Analyst Ralf Umlauf of Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen supports expectations of a hesitant recovery in the sector.
The employment sub-index improved slightly but remained well below the guaranteed growth threshold. This, along with the indicator for paid prices easing slightly at a high level, has reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut. The orders index also fell below the guaranteed growth threshold, suggesting a cautious outlook for the sector.
While there are signs of a slight recovery in US industry, the overall economic activity remains in contraction territory. The financial markets anticipate a Fed rate cut, reflecting the current state of the sector and its employment sub-index. The ISM index will continue to be closely watched for further developments.
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